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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."